Marbelli vs Motril: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 14Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal, San Pedro de Alcántara
The Footlab AI model makes Marbelli the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Motril. The most likely score is 1-1. If Marbelli wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,527 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marbelli vs Motril?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Marbelli (1,789) and Motril (1,846).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Marbelli vs Motril
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Marbelli
Not enough data to predict the Marbelli lineup.
Motril
Not enough data to predict the Motril lineup.
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marbelli have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Motril have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alhaurino(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Malaga City(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Torre del Mar(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Huétor Vega(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | UD San Pedro(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Alhaurino(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Malaga City(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Torre del Mar(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Marbelli wins, 3 draws, 1 Motril win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Motril 0-0 Marbelli | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Marbelli 1-1 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Marbelli 0-0 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Motril 2-0 Marbelli | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
How many goals should we expect?
Marbelli score 1.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Motril score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marbelli | 1.0 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Motril | 1.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marbelli sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (13 points from 6 matches) and Motril sit 5th (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Marbelli | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Motril | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
A question about Marbelli vs Motril?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marbelli vs Motril?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marbelli the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Motril.
- Where and when is Marbelli vs Motril played?
- Marbelli vs Motril is played on December 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 6, 2026MelillavsAtletico de Marbella
- Dec 6, 2026Ciudad de TorredonjimenovsGranada II
- Dec 6, 2026Huétor VegavsMálaga II
- Dec 6, 2026Mancha RealvsAlmería II
- Dec 6, 2026AlhaurinovsUD San Pedro
- Dec 6, 2026Torre del MarvsCantoria
- Dec 6, 2026Arenas ArmillavsChurriana Vega
- Dec 6, 2026Malaga CityvsAtlético Porcuna