Motril vs Arenas Armilla: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 15Kick-off on December 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Escribano Castilla, Motril
The Footlab AI model makes Motril the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Arenas Armilla. The most likely score is 1-1. If Motril wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 5,337 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 11, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Motril vs Arenas Armilla?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Motril (1,807) and Arenas Armilla (1,801).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Motril vs Arenas Armilla
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Motril
Not enough data to predict the Motril lineup.
Arenas Armilla
Not enough data to predict the Arenas Armilla lineup.
Computed on November 11, 2026 at 05:27 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motril have 4 wins, 8 draws and 3 defeats; Arenas Armilla have 8, 6 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Almería II(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Granada II(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Málaga II(home) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Cantoria(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Cantoria(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | UD San Pedro(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Malaga City(home) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Motril wins, 2 draws, 1 Arenas Armilla win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Motril 1-1 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 31, 2026 | Arenas Armilla 1-0 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Motril 1-1 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Arenas Armilla 0-2 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Arenas Armilla 0-1 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Nov 17, 2024 | Motril 2-0 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Motril vs Arenas Armilla on Jun 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Motril score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Arenas Armilla score 1.6 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motril | 1.1 | 1.0 | 5 | 8/15 | 3/15 |
| Arenas Armilla | 1.6 | 1.0 | 7 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Motril sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (17 points from 10 matches) and Arenas Armilla sit 2nd (22 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arenas Armilla | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 22 |
| 5 | Motril | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 17 |
A question about Motril vs Arenas Armilla?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Motril vs Arenas Armilla?
- The Footlab AI model makes Motril the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Arenas Armilla.
- Where and when is Motril vs Arenas Armilla played?
- Motril vs Arenas Armilla is played on December 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Escribano Castilla, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.