Arenas Armilla vs Malaga City: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Municipal, Armilla
The Footlab model makes Arenas Armilla the favourite at 63%, against 24% for a draw and 13% for Malaga City. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arenas Armilla vs Malaga City?
Arenas Armilla starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (1,783 vs 1,593).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arenas Armilla have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Malaga City have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(away) | 2-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Motril(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 31, 2026 | Motril(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 24, 2026 | Torre del Mar(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 4, 2025 | Polideportivo Almería(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 1, 2025 | Real Jaén(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Mancha Real(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Mijas Las Lagunas(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Arenas Armilla win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Malaga City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Arenas Armilla 3-2 Malaga City | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Malaga City 0-1 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Arenas Armilla 1-0 Malaga City | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 1, 2023 | Malaga City 1-1 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Jan 29, 2023 | Malaga City 1-1 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | Arenas Armilla 3-0 Malaga City | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Arenas Armilla vs Malaga City on May 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Arenas Armilla score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Malaga City score 1.0 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arenas Armilla | 1.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Malaga City | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Arenas Armilla | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 29 | 54 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arenas Armilla vs Malaga City?
- The Footlab model makes Arenas Armilla the favourite at 63%, against 24% for a draw and 13% for Malaga City.
- Where and when is Arenas Armilla vs Malaga City played?
- Arenas Armilla vs Malaga City is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 11, 2026MelillavsUD San Pedro
- Oct 11, 2026Granada IIvsAtletico de Marbella
- Oct 11, 2026Almería IIvsMálaga II
- Oct 11, 2026Ciudad de TorredonjimenovsHuétor Vega
- Oct 11, 2026Mancha RealvsTorre del Mar
- Oct 11, 2026MotrilvsAtlético Porcuna
- Oct 11, 2026MarbellivsAlhaurino
- Oct 11, 2026Churriana VegavsCantoria