Where and when is Marbelli vs Alhaurino played?

Marbelli vs Alhaurino is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Marbelli vs Alhaurino: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal, San Pedro de Alcántara

Marbelli

Alhaurino

The Footlab model makes Marbelli the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for Alhaurino. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Marbelli vs Alhaurino?

A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Marbelli (1,773) and Alhaurino (1,702).

Marbelli win49 %

Draw29 %

Alhaurino win22 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marbelli have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Alhaurino have 5, 4 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Marbelli
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(away)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 3, 2026	Granada II(home)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 26, 2026	Huétor Vega(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 19, 2026	Huétor Tájar(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 11, 2026	UD Melilla II(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Alhaurino
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Mancha Real(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 3, 2026	Arenas Armilla(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 26, 2026	Churriana Vega(home)	4-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 19, 2026	Torreperogil(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 12, 2026	Atlético Porcuna(home)	3-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Marbelli win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Alhaurino win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jan 18, 2026	Marbelli 2-1 Alhaurino	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Sep 6, 2025	Alhaurino 1-2 Marbelli	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Last archived meeting: Marbelli vs Alhaurino on Jan 18, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Marbelli score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Alhaurino score 1.2 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Marbelli	0.9	0.7	7	6/15	4/15
Alhaurino	1.2	1.0	5	7/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Marbelli sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (51 points from 34 matches) and Alhaurino sit 12th (43 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Marbelli	34	14	9	11	36	28	51
12	Alhaurino	34	11	10	13	41	41	43

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Marbelli vs Alhaurino?: The Footlab model makes Marbelli the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for Alhaurino.
Where and when is Marbelli vs Alhaurino played?: Marbelli vs Alhaurino is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.