Where and when is Motril vs Atlético Porcuna played?

Motril vs Atlético Porcuna is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Escribano Castilla, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Motril vs Atlético Porcuna: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Escribano Castilla, Motril

Motril

Atlético Porcuna

The Footlab model makes Motril the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Atlético Porcuna. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Motril vs Atlético Porcuna?

Motril starts as the favourite with a 137-point Elo edge (1,854 vs 1,716).

Motril win59 %

Draw25 %

Atlético Porcuna win16 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motril have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Atlético Porcuna have 7, 2 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Motril
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Jun 7, 2026	Arenas Armilla(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 31, 2026	Arenas Armilla(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 24, 2026	Churriana Vega(home)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 17, 2026	Churriana Vega(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 10, 2026	Atlético Porcuna(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Atlético Porcuna
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Motril(away)	1-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 3, 2026	Torre del Mar(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 25, 2026	El Palo(away)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 19, 2026	UD San Pedro(home)	2-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 12, 2026	Alhaurino(away)	0-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Motril win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Atlético Porcuna win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Motril 2-1 Atlético Porcuna	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Jan 11, 2026	Atlético Porcuna 1-0 Motril	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 4, 2025	Atlético Porcuna 0-1 Motril	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Jan 4, 2025	Motril 1-4 Atlético Porcuna	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Feb 19, 2023	Motril 2-0 Atlético Porcuna	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Oct 23, 2022	Atlético Porcuna 0-2 Motril	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Last archived meeting: Motril vs Atlético Porcuna on May 10, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Motril score 1.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Atlético Porcuna score 1.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Motril	1.2	0.8	6	8/15	6/15
Atlético Porcuna	1.2	1.2	5	7/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Motril sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (65 points from 34 matches) and Atlético Porcuna sit 9th (46 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Motril	34	18	11	5	55	29	65
9	Atlético Porcuna	34	14	4	16	41	39	46

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Motril vs Atlético Porcuna?: The Footlab model makes Motril the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for Atlético Porcuna.
Where and when is Motril vs Atlético Porcuna played?: Motril vs Atlético Porcuna is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Escribano Castilla, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.