Arenas Getxo vs Ponferradina: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 · Matchday 36Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Gobela, Getxo
The Footlab AI model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Arenas Getxo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ponferradina wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,760 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arenas Getxo vs Ponferradina?
A very open match: only 87 Elo points separate Arenas Getxo (1,835) and Ponferradina (1,922).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arenas Getxo vs Ponferradina
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arenas Getxo
4-3-3- 9José Luis Cortés
- 23Álex Oyón
- 14E. Redondo
- 16Gael Akogo Esono
- 6I. Garcia
- 24Álvaro Arnedo
- 18Rubi
- 2J. Larrauri
- 22A. Dufur
- 15B. Arratibel
- 1Manuel Obón
Ponferradina
4-2-3-1- 10Borja Valle
- 15O. Vacas
- 5Eneko Undabarrena
- 6Fede San Emeterio
- 8Arturo Molina
- 16Ntji Tounkara
- 4A. Jelbat
- 3Sergio Nieto
- 23A. Roig
- 24Koke
- 1Álex Domínguez
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 07:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arenas Getxo have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Ponferradina have 4, 8 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruña II(home) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | CD Coria(away) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | UD Ourense(home) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Mérida AD(home) | 0-4 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(away) | 1-4 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2026 | Cacereño(home) | 1-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 8, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(away) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Racing Ferrol(away) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Llanera(away) | 1-1 | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Barakaldo(home) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Arenas Getxo win, 0 draws, 1 Ponferradina win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Arenas Getxo 0-1 Ponferradina | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Ponferradina 1-2 Arenas Getxo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Arenas Getxo vs Ponferradina on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arenas Getxo score 0.9 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ponferradina score 0.9 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arenas Getxo | 0.9 | 2.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Ponferradina | 0.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arenas Getxo sit 19th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (11 points from 11 matches) and Ponferradina sit 11th (15 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ponferradina | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 15 |
| 19 | Arenas Getxo | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 23 | 11 |
A question about Arenas Getxo vs Ponferradina?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arenas Getxo vs Ponferradina?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Arenas Getxo.
- Where and when is Arenas Getxo vs Ponferradina played?
- Arenas Getxo vs Ponferradina is played on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Gobela, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.