Barakaldo vs Lugo: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 36Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, Barakaldo
The Footlab model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for Lugo. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barakaldo vs Lugo?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Barakaldo (1,957) and Lugo (1,885).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barakaldo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Lugo have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Portugalete(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(home) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Real Avilés(away) | 4-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | Mérida AD(home) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Tenerife(away) | 0-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Ourense CF(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Coruxo(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Arenteiro(home) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(away) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Barakaldo win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Lugo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Barakaldo 3-0 Lugo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Lugo 2-2 Barakaldo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Barakaldo 3-2 Lugo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Lugo 0-0 Barakaldo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Barakaldo score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lugo score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barakaldo | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Lugo | 0.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barakaldo sit 7th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (58 points from 38 matches) and Lugo sit 9th (53 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Barakaldo | 38 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 51 | 38 | 58 |
| 9 | Lugo | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 36 | 40 | 53 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barakaldo vs Lugo?
- The Footlab model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 50%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for Lugo.
- Where and when is Barakaldo vs Lugo played?
- Barakaldo vs Lugo is played on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.