Match

Lugo vs Arenas Getxo: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 37Kick-off on May 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Anxo Carro, Lugo

LugoArenas Getxo

The Footlab AI model makes Lugo the favourite at 77%, against 16% for a draw and 7% for Arenas Getxo. The most likely score is 2-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,526 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Lugo vs Arenas Getxo?

Lugo starts as the favourite with a 129-point Elo edge (1,967 vs 1,839).

77%16%7%
Lugo winDrawArenas Getxo win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Lugo vs Arenas Getxo

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Lugo

4-3-3
  1. 17Chiqui
  2. 11M. Dauda
  3. 16A. Palma
  1. 20A. Ulloa
  2. 15P. Parrilla
  3. 6Kevin Presa
  1. 5Pol Moreno
  2. 19R. Lucero
  3. 4Ibaider Garriz
  4. 3Pere Haro
  1. 1Marc Martínez

Arenas Getxo

4-3-3
  1. 9José Luis Cortés
  2. 23Álex Oyón
  3. 10Martin Pedroarena
  1. 16Gael Akogo Esono
  2. 6I. Garcia
  3. 21I. Telletxea
  1. 18Rubi
  2. 3A. Lekuna
  3. 5J. Zubelzu
  4. 2J. Larrauri
  1. 1Manuel Obón

Computed on October 17, 2026 at 11:13 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lugo have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Arenas Getxo have 2, 4 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Lugo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 12, 2026UD Logroñés(home)3-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 2, 2026Real Avilés(away)2-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 26, 2026Racing Ferrol(home)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 20, 2026Zamora(away)2-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 13, 2026CD Coria(home)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Arenas Getxo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 12, 2026Cultural Leonesa(away)1-4Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 3, 2026Barakaldo(away)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 26, 2026Athletic Club II(home)0-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 20, 2026Cacereño(away)0-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 13, 2026Zamora(home)1-2Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Lugo wins, 2 draws, 1 Arenas Getxo win.

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 22, 2026Lugo 1-1 Arenas GetxoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 11, 2025Arenas Getxo 0-0 LugoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 12, 2022Arenas Getxo 1-0 LugoCopa del Rey

Last archived meeting: Lugo vs Arenas Getxo on Mar 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Lugo score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Arenas Getxo score 0.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Lugo1.30.876/157/15
Arenas Getxo0.92.128/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Lugo sit 1st in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (19 points from 7 matches) and Arenas Getxo sit 20th (2 points from 7 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Lugo761012419
20Arenas Getxo70255182

A question about Lugo vs Arenas Getxo?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Lugo vs Arenas Getxo?
The Footlab AI model makes Lugo the favourite at 77%, against 16% for a draw and 7% for Arenas Getxo.
Where and when is Lugo vs Arenas Getxo played?
Lugo vs Arenas Getxo is played on May 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Anxo Carro, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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