Real Avilés vs Racing Ferrol: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 36Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Román Suárez Puerta, Avilés
The Footlab model makes Real Avilés the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Racing Ferrol. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Avilés vs Racing Ferrol?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Real Avilés (1,869) and Racing Ferrol (1,831).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Avilés have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Racing Ferrol have 2, 8 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mosconia(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Racing Ferrol(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Racing Santander II(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Real Madrid II(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Unionistas de Salamanca(away) | 2-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Osasuna II(home) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | Arenas Getxo(away) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Real Avilés win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Racing Ferrol win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Racing Ferrol 1-1 Real Avilés | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Racing Ferrol 2-2 Real Avilés | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Real Avilés 2-1 Racing Ferrol | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Racing Ferrol vs Real Avilés on Aug 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Avilés score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Racing Ferrol score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Avilés | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 12/15 | 8/15 |
| Racing Ferrol | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Avilés sit 14th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (44 points from 38 matches) and Racing Ferrol sit 12th (49 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Racing Ferrol | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 41 | 47 | 49 |
| 14 | Real Avilés | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 55 | 67 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Avilés vs Racing Ferrol?
- The Footlab model makes Real Avilés the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Racing Ferrol.
- Where and when is Real Avilés vs Racing Ferrol played?
- Real Avilés vs Racing Ferrol is played on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Román Suárez Puerta, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.