Aretxabaleta vs Eibar III: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, Aretxabaleta (Arechavaleta)
The Footlab AI model makes Aretxabaleta the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Eibar III. The most likely score is 1-1. If Aretxabaleta wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aretxabaleta vs Eibar III?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Aretxabaleta (1,662) and Eibar III (1,624).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aretxabaleta vs Eibar III
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aretxabaleta
Not enough data to predict the Aretxabaleta lineup.
Eibar III
Not enough data to predict the Eibar III lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:17 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aretxabaleta have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Eibar III have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Durango(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | San Ignacio(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Erandio(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sodupe(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Aretxabaleta win, 1 draw, 2 Eibar III wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Eibar III 4-2 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Aretxabaleta 4-0 Eibar III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 4, 2025 | Aretxabaleta 0-1 Eibar III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Eibar III 0-0 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Eibar III vs Aretxabaleta on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aretxabaleta score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Eibar III score 1.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aretxabaleta | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Eibar III | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aretxabaleta sit 9th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (8 points from 5 matches) and Eibar III sit 16th (5 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Aretxabaleta | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 16 | Eibar III | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 5 |
A question about Aretxabaleta vs Eibar III?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aretxabaleta vs Eibar III?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aretxabaleta the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Eibar III.
- Where and when is Aretxabaleta vs Eibar III played?
- Aretxabaleta vs Eibar III is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.