Derio vs Lagun Onak: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo, Derio
The Footlab AI model makes Derio the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Lagun Onak. The most likely score is 1-1. If Derio wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derio vs Lagun Onak?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Derio (1,807) and Lagun Onak (1,770).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Derio vs Lagun Onak
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Derio
Not enough data to predict the Derio lineup.
Lagun Onak
Not enough data to predict the Lagun Onak lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 10:54 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derio have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Lagun Onak have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(home) | 3-5 | Copa Federacion |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Beasain(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Santurtzi(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | San Ignacio(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Derio wins, 1 draw, 3 Lagun Onak wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Derio 2-0 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 17, 2026 | Lagun Onak 2-0 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Derio 0-1 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Lagun Onak 3-0 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Derio 2-0 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Lagun Onak 1-1 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Derio score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lagun Onak score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derio | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
| Lagun Onak | 1.5 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derio sit 3rd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (12 points from 6 matches) and Lagun Onak sit 13th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Derio | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 13 | Lagun Onak | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 7 |
A question about Derio vs Lagun Onak?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derio vs Lagun Onak?
- The Footlab AI model makes Derio the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Lagun Onak.
- Where and when is Derio vs Lagun Onak played?
- Derio vs Lagun Onak is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.