Durango vs Pasaia KE: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Tabira, Durango
The Footlab AI model makes Durango the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Pasaia KE. The most likely score is 1-1. If Durango wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Durango vs Pasaia KE?
On Elo ratings, Durango has 1,678 points and Pasaia KE 1,584.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Durango vs Pasaia KE
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Durango
Not enough data to predict the Durango lineup.
Pasaia KE
Not enough data to predict the Pasaia KE lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 05:58 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Durango have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Pasaia KE have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Touring(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Beasain(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santurtzi(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | San Ignacio(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Durango wins, 3 draws, 1 Pasaia KE win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Durango 0-0 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Pasaia KE 0-2 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 10, 2025 | Durango 0-0 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Pasaia KE 3-2 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Durango 1-0 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Pasaia KE 1-1 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Durango score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Pasaia KE score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durango | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Pasaia KE | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Durango sit 11th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (7 points from 6 matches) and Pasaia KE sit 6th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pasaia KE | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 10 |
| 11 | Durango | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 7 |
A question about Durango vs Pasaia KE?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Durango vs Pasaia KE?
- The Footlab AI model makes Durango the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Pasaia KE.
- Where and when is Durango vs Pasaia KE played?
- Durango vs Pasaia KE is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Tabira, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.