Durango vs Pasaia KE: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Tabira, Durango
The Footlab model makes Durango the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 13% for Pasaia KE. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Durango vs Pasaia KE?
Durango starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,735 vs 1,626).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Durango have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Pasaia KE have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Deusto(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Eibar III(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Añorga(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Durango(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Zamudio(away) | 0-7 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Durango win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Pasaia KE win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Durango 0-0 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Pasaia KE 0-2 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 10, 2025 | Durango 0-0 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Pasaia KE 3-2 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Durango 1-0 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Pasaia KE 1-1 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Durango score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Pasaia KE score 0.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durango | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Pasaia KE | 0.8 | 1.7 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Durango sit 11th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (44 points from 34 matches) and Pasaia KE sit 14th (36 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Durango | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 35 | 36 | 44 |
| 14 | Pasaia KE | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 26 | 46 | 36 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Durango vs Pasaia KE?
- The Footlab model makes Durango the favourite at 63%, against 23% for a draw and 13% for Pasaia KE.
- Where and when is Durango vs Pasaia KE played?
- Durango vs Pasaia KE is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Tabira, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.