Erandio vs Aretxabaleta: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Erandio the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Aretxabaleta. The most likely score is 1-1. If Erandio wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,921 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Erandio vs Aretxabaleta?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Erandio (1,699) and Aretxabaleta (1,735).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Erandio vs Aretxabaleta
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Erandio
Not enough data to predict the Erandio lineup.
Aretxabaleta
Not enough data to predict the Aretxabaleta lineup.
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 02:38 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 7 matches in all competitions, Erandio have 2 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats; Aretxabaleta have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Sodupe(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Amurrio Club(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Eibar III(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | R. Union B(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Durango(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Erandio score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 7; Aretxabaleta score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erandio | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2 | 2/7 | 2/7 |
| Aretxabaleta | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 7 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Erandio sit 15th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (6 points from 7 matches) and Aretxabaleta sit 6th (11 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aretxabaleta | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 11 |
| 15 | Erandio | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 6 |
A question about Erandio vs Aretxabaleta?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Erandio vs Aretxabaleta?
- The Footlab AI model makes Erandio the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Aretxabaleta.
- Where and when is Erandio vs Aretxabaleta played?
- Erandio vs Aretxabaleta is played on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.