San Ignacio vs Aurrerá Vitoria: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de fútbol Los Astrónomos, Gasteiz
The Footlab model makes San Ignacio the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Aurrerá Vitoria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Ignacio vs Aurrerá Vitoria?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate San Ignacio (1,771) and Aurrerá Vitoria (1,700).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Ignacio have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Aurrerá Vitoria have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | La Calzada(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Touring(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Leioa(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Deusto(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Portugalete(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | San Ignacio(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Touring(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 San Ignacio win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Aurrerá Vitoria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria 0-1 San Ignacio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 21, 2025 | San Ignacio 3-1 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 28, 2023 | Aurrerá Vitoria 0-1 San Ignacio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 24, 2022 | San Ignacio 0-1 Aurrerá Vitoria | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Aurrerá Vitoria vs San Ignacio on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
San Ignacio score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Aurrerá Vitoria score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Ignacio | 1.3 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Aurrerá Vitoria | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Ignacio sit 7th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (55 points from 34 matches) and Aurrerá Vitoria sit 8th (54 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | San Ignacio | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 37 | 27 | 55 |
| 8 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 34 | 16 | 7 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 54 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Ignacio vs Aurrerá Vitoria?
- The Footlab model makes San Ignacio the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Aurrerá Vitoria.
- Where and when is San Ignacio vs Aurrerá Vitoria played?
- San Ignacio vs Aurrerá Vitoria is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de fútbol Los Astrónomos, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.