Santurtzi vs Aretxabaleta: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 17Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio San Jorge, Santurtzi
The Footlab AI model makes Santurtzi the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Aretxabaleta. The most likely score is 1-1. If Santurtzi wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,818 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 29, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santurtzi vs Aretxabaleta?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Santurtzi (1,690) and Aretxabaleta (1,743).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Santurtzi vs Aretxabaleta
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Santurtzi
Not enough data to predict the Santurtzi lineup.
Aretxabaleta
Not enough data to predict the Aretxabaleta lineup.
Computed on October 29, 2026 at 05:31 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santurtzi have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Aretxabaleta have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Amurrio Club(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Eibar III(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | R. Union B(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Pasaia KE(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Lagun Onak(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | R. Union B(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Santurtzi win, 3 draws, 0 Aretxabaleta wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Santurtzi 2-1 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Aretxabaleta 2-2 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Aretxabaleta 1-1 Santurtzi | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Santurtzi 0-0 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Santurtzi vs Aretxabaleta on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santurtzi score 0.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Aretxabaleta score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santurtzi | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Aretxabaleta | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santurtzi sit 16th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (6 points from 7 matches) and Aretxabaleta sit 5th (14 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aretxabaleta | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 14 |
| 16 | Santurtzi | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 6 |
A question about Santurtzi vs Aretxabaleta?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santurtzi vs Aretxabaleta?
- The Footlab AI model makes Santurtzi the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Aretxabaleta.
- Where and when is Santurtzi vs Aretxabaleta played?
- Santurtzi vs Aretxabaleta is played on January 10, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio San Jorge, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.