Argentino de Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano: prediction and stats
Primera B MetropolitanaRegular Season - 39Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio José Manuel Moreno, Parque San Martín, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Sportivo Italiano the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Argentino de Merlo. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Argentino de Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Argentino de Merlo (1,663) and Sportivo Italiano (1,715).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Argentino de Merlo have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Sportivo Italiano have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Excursionistas(away) | 0-2 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Arsenal Sarandi(home) | 0-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ituzaingó(home) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Talleres Remedios(away) | 2-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Deportivo Laferrere(home) | 1-3 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Defensores Unidos(home) | 0-2 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Comunicaciones(away) | 0-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dock Sud(home) | 4-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Deportivo Merlo(away) | 4-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Deportivo Camioneros(home) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Argentino de Merlo win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Sportivo Italiano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Sportivo Italiano 0-2 Argentino de Merlo | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 13, 2025 | Argentino de Merlo 1-1 Sportivo Italiano | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Sportivo Italiano 0-0 Argentino de Merlo | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Argentino de Merlo 5-1 Sportivo Italiano | Primera B Metropolitana |
| May 11, 2024 | Sportivo Italiano 1-1 Argentino de Merlo | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 7, 2022 | Argentino de Merlo 1-2 Sportivo Italiano | Primera C |
Last archived meeting: Sportivo Italiano vs Argentino de Merlo on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Argentino de Merlo score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sportivo Italiano score 1.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentino de Merlo | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Sportivo Italiano | 1.2 | 0.8 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Argentino de Merlo sit 12th in Primera B Metropolitana (24 points from 20 matches) and Sportivo Italiano sit 6th (33 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 33 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 36 | 25 | 52 |
| 11 | Argentino de Merlo | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 30 | 32 | 40 |
| 12 | Argentino de Merlo | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 17 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Argentino de Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano?
- The Footlab model makes Sportivo Italiano the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Argentino de Merlo.
- Where and when is Argentino de Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano played?
- Argentino de Merlo vs Sportivo Italiano is played on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio José Manuel Moreno, in the Primera B Metropolitana.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Arsenal SarandivsSan Martín Burzaco
- Oct 10, 2026Brown DE AdroguevsDock Sud
- Oct 10, 2026FlandriavsDefensores Unidos
- Oct 10, 2026Villa DalminevsLiniers
- Oct 10, 2026Deportivo LaferrerevsDeportivo Merlo
- Oct 10, 2026Talleres RemediosvsDeportivo Camioneros
- Oct 10, 2026UAI UrquizavsReal Pilar
- Oct 10, 2026Deportivo ArmeniovsComunicaciones