Excursionistas vs Villa San Carlos: prediction and stats
Primera B MetropolitanaRegular Season - 39Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Excursionistas, Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Excursionistas the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Villa San Carlos. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Excursionistas vs Villa San Carlos?
Excursionistas starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,753 vs 1,645).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Excursionistas have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Villa San Carlos have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Talleres Remedios(away) | 2-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Deportivo Laferrere(home) | 5-3 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brown DE Adrogue(away) | 0-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Deportivo Armenio(home) | 2-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Flandria(away) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Argentino Quilmes(away) | 2-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Defensores Unidos(home) | 1-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Comunicaciones(away) | 1-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Dock Sud(home) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Deportivo Merlo(away) | 2-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Excursionistas win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Villa San Carlos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Villa San Carlos 0-2 Excursionistas | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Excursionistas 0-0 Villa San Carlos | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Villa San Carlos 2-1 Excursionistas | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Villa San Carlos 2-2 Excursionistas | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Excursionistas 1-0 Villa San Carlos | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jun 30, 2019 | Excursionistas 1-0 Villa San Carlos | Primera C |
Last archived meeting: Villa San Carlos vs Excursionistas on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Excursionistas score 1.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Villa San Carlos score 0.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excursionistas | 1.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Villa San Carlos | 0.8 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Excursionistas sit 1st in Primera B Metropolitana (41 points from 20 matches) and Villa San Carlos sit 21st (16 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 11 | 41 |
| 1 | Excursionistas | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 47 | 24 | 59 |
| 16 | Villa San Carlos | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 31 | 35 | 35 |
| 21 | Villa San Carlos | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 27 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Excursionistas vs Villa San Carlos?
- The Footlab model makes Excursionistas the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Villa San Carlos.
- Where and when is Excursionistas vs Villa San Carlos played?
- Excursionistas vs Villa San Carlos is played on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Excursionistas, in the Primera B Metropolitana.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Arsenal SarandivsSan Martín Burzaco
- Oct 10, 2026Brown DE AdroguevsDock Sud
- Oct 10, 2026FlandriavsDefensores Unidos
- Oct 10, 2026Villa DalminevsLiniers
- Oct 10, 2026Deportivo LaferrerevsDeportivo Merlo
- Oct 10, 2026Talleres RemediosvsDeportivo Camioneros
- Oct 10, 2026UAI UrquizavsReal Pilar
- Oct 10, 2026Deportivo ArmeniovsComunicaciones