Deportivo Laferrere vs Deportivo Merlo: prediction and stats
Primera B MetropolitanaRegular Season - 39Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Deportivo Laferrere, Gregorio de Laferrere, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Deportivo Laferrere the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Deportivo Merlo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Deportivo Laferrere vs Deportivo Merlo?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Deportivo Laferrere (1,677) and Deportivo Merlo (1,624).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Deportivo Laferrere have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Deportivo Merlo have 2, 7 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | UAI Urquiza(away) | 2-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Villa Dalmine(home) | 0-2 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Excursionistas(away) | 3-5 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Arsenal Sarandi(home) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Argentino de Merlo(away) | 3-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ituzaingó(away) | 0-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Deportivo Camioneros(away) | 0-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sportivo Italiano(home) | 0-4 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 2, 2026 | San Martín Burzaco(away) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Villa San Carlos(home) | 1-2 | Primera B Metropolitana |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Deportivo Laferrere win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Deportivo Merlo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 2026 | Deportivo Merlo 2-1 Deportivo Laferrere | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Deportivo Laferrere 2-2 Deportivo Merlo | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Feb 23, 2025 | Deportivo Merlo 1-1 Deportivo Laferrere | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Deportivo Merlo 0-0 Deportivo Laferrere | Primera B Metropolitana |
| May 19, 2024 | Deportivo Laferrere 1-0 Deportivo Merlo | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jan 13, 2021 | Deportivo Merlo 1-1 Deportivo Laferrere | Primera C |
Last archived meeting: Deportivo Merlo vs Deportivo Laferrere on Jun 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Deportivo Laferrere score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Deportivo Merlo score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Laferrere | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Deportivo Merlo | 0.9 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Deportivo Laferrere sit 13th in Primera B Metropolitana (24 points from 20 matches) and Deportivo Merlo sit 8th (31 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Deportivo Laferrere | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 38 | 41 | 45 |
| 8 | Deportivo Merlo | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 24 | 31 |
| 13 | Deportivo Laferrere | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 27 | 24 |
| 13 | Deportivo Merlo | 31 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 45 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Deportivo Laferrere vs Deportivo Merlo?
- The Footlab model makes Deportivo Laferrere the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Deportivo Merlo.
- Where and when is Deportivo Laferrere vs Deportivo Merlo played?
- Deportivo Laferrere vs Deportivo Merlo is played on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Deportivo Laferrere, in the Primera B Metropolitana.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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