Argentino de Merlo vs Villa San Carlos: prediction and stats
Primera B MetropolitanaRegular Season - 37Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio José Manuel Moreno, Parque San Martín, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Argentino de Merlo the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Villa San Carlos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Argentino de Merlo vs Villa San Carlos?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Argentino de Merlo (1,663) and Villa San Carlos (1,656).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Argentino de Merlo have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Villa San Carlos have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Excursionistas(away) | 0-2 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Arsenal Sarandi(home) | 0-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ituzaingó(home) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Talleres Remedios(away) | 2-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Deportivo Laferrere(home) | 1-3 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Flandria(home) | 3-2 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Argentino Quilmes(away) | 2-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Defensores Unidos(home) | 1-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Comunicaciones(away) | 1-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Dock Sud(home) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Argentino de Merlo win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Villa San Carlos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Villa San Carlos 0-0 Argentino de Merlo | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Villa San Carlos 2-0 Argentino de Merlo | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Argentino de Merlo 1-0 Villa San Carlos | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Oct 8, 2024 | Villa San Carlos 0-1 Argentino de Merlo | Primera B Metropolitana |
| May 18, 2024 | Argentino de Merlo 2-1 Villa San Carlos | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jun 16, 2023 | Argentino de Merlo 0-1 Villa San Carlos | Primera B Metropolitana |
Last archived meeting: Villa San Carlos vs Argentino de Merlo on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Argentino de Merlo score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Villa San Carlos score 1.0 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentino de Merlo | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Villa San Carlos | 1.0 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Argentino de Merlo sit 12th in Primera B Metropolitana (24 points from 20 matches) and Villa San Carlos sit 21st (16 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Argentino de Merlo | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 30 | 30 | 40 |
| 12 | Argentino de Merlo | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 17 | 24 |
| 14 | Villa San Carlos | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 34 | 37 | 38 |
| 21 | Villa San Carlos | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 27 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Argentino de Merlo vs Villa San Carlos?
- The Footlab model makes Argentino de Merlo the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Villa San Carlos.
- Where and when is Argentino de Merlo vs Villa San Carlos played?
- Argentino de Merlo vs Villa San Carlos is played on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio José Manuel Moreno, in the Primera B Metropolitana.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 26, 2026Arsenal SarandivsLiniers
- Sep 26, 2026Brown DE AdroguevsDeportivo Camioneros
- Sep 26, 2026FlandriavsDock Sud
- Sep 26, 2026Villa DalminevsUAI Urquiza
- Sep 26, 2026Deportivo LaferrerevsSportivo Italiano
- Sep 26, 2026Talleres RemediosvsSan Martín Burzaco
- Sep 26, 2026Deportivo ArmeniovsDeportivo Merlo
- Sep 26, 2026Argentino QuilmesvsComunicaciones