San Martín Burzaco vs Argentino de Merlo: prediction and stats
Primera B MetropolitanaRegular Season - 38Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Francisco Boga, Burzaco, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Argentino de Merlo the favourite at 36%, against 31% for a draw and 33% for San Martín Burzaco. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Martín Burzaco vs Argentino de Merlo?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate San Martín Burzaco (1,633) and Argentino de Merlo (1,663).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Martín Burzaco have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Argentino de Merlo have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Argentino Quilmes(home) | 3-2 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Defensores Unidos(away) | 0-2 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Comunicaciones(home) | 0-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Dock Sud(away) | 1-4 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Deportivo Merlo(home) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Excursionistas(away) | 0-2 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Arsenal Sarandi(home) | 0-0 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ituzaingó(home) | 1-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Talleres Remedios(away) | 2-1 | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Deportivo Laferrere(home) | 1-3 | Primera B Metropolitana |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 San Martín Burzaco win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Argentino de Merlo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Argentino de Merlo 0-1 San Martín Burzaco | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Aug 30, 2025 | San Martín Burzaco 3-0 Argentino de Merlo | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Argentino de Merlo 2-0 San Martín Burzaco | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jun 22, 2024 | Argentino de Merlo 3-1 San Martín Burzaco | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Feb 2, 2024 | San Martín Burzaco 0-0 Argentino de Merlo | Primera B Metropolitana |
| Jul 17, 2022 | San Martín Burzaco 0-1 Argentino de Merlo | Primera C |
Last archived meeting: Argentino de Merlo vs San Martín Burzaco on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
San Martín Burzaco score 0.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Argentino de Merlo score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Martín Burzaco | 0.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Argentino de Merlo | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Martín Burzaco sit 10th in Primera B Metropolitana (28 points from 20 matches) and Argentino de Merlo sit 12th (24 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | San Martín Burzaco | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 28 |
| 11 | Argentino de Merlo | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 30 | 30 | 40 |
| 12 | Argentino de Merlo | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 17 | 24 |
| 12 | San Martín Burzaco | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 31 | 34 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Martín Burzaco vs Argentino de Merlo?
- The Footlab model makes Argentino de Merlo the favourite at 36%, against 31% for a draw and 33% for San Martín Burzaco.
- Where and when is San Martín Burzaco vs Argentino de Merlo played?
- San Martín Burzaco vs Argentino de Merlo is played on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Francisco Boga, in the Primera B Metropolitana.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 3, 2026Defensores UnidosvsArgentino Quilmes
- Oct 3, 2026UAI UrquizavsItuzaingó
- Oct 3, 2026Real PilarvsVilla Dalmine
- Oct 3, 2026Dock SudvsDeportivo Armenio
- Oct 3, 2026Deportivo CamionerosvsDeportivo Laferrere
- Oct 3, 2026ComunicacionesvsFlandria
- Oct 3, 2026Villa San CarlosvsArsenal Sarandi
- Oct 3, 2026Deportivo MerlovsBrown DE Adrogue