Where and when is Arosa vs Gernika played?

Arosa vs Gernika is played on September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio A Lomba, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Arosa vs Gernika: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 2Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio A Lomba, Vilagarcía de Arousa

Arosa

Gernika

The Footlab model makes Arosa the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Gernika. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Arosa vs Gernika?

A very open match: only 67 Elo points separate Arosa (1,904) and Gernika (1,838).

Arosa win50 %

Draw26 %

Gernika win24 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arosa have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Gernika have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Arosa
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 1, 2026	Pontevedra(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 10, 2026	Celtiga(home)	3-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
May 2, 2026	Cambados(away)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	Boiro(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 19, 2026	Barco(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

Gernika
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Deportivo Alavés II(home)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 26, 2026	Basconia(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 18, 2026	Tudelano(home)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 11, 2026	Amorebieta(away)	2-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 4, 2026	Utebo(home)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

How many goals should we expect?

Arosa score 1.7 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Gernika score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Arosa	1.7	0.8	7	7/15	5/15
Gernika	1.0	1.5	5	7/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Arosa vs Gernika?: The Footlab model makes Arosa the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Gernika.
Where and when is Arosa vs Gernika played?: Arosa vs Gernika is played on September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio A Lomba, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.