Arouca vs Benfica: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Arouca. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,381 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arouca vs Benfica?
Benfica is a heavy favourite: 2,466 Elo points against 2,156, a 309-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arouca vs Benfica
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arouca
4-2-3-1- 17Barbero
- 7N. Djouahra
- 19A. Trezza
- 8T. Fukui
- 6E. van Ee
- 10Pablo Gozálbez
- 28Tiago Esgaio
- 3José Fontán
- 18O. Lebedenko
- 15Javi Sánchez
- 12I. de Arruabarrena
Benfica
4-2-3-1- 14V. Pavlidis
- 27Rafa
- 25G. Prestianni
- 36João Palhinha
- 18L. Barreiro
- 21A. Schjelderup
- 44Tomás Araújo
- 26S. Dahl
- 6A. Bah
- 3A. Circati
- 24Samuel Soares
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 09:43 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arouca have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Benfica have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AC Milan(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Moreirense(away) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Arouca wins, 1 draw, 5 Benfica wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Arouca 1-2 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Benfica 5-0 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Benfica 2-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Arouca 0-2 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| May 12, 2024 | Benfica 5-0 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 6, 2024 | Arouca 0-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Arouca score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Benfica score 3.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Benfica | 3.3 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arouca sit 5th in Primeira Liga (14 points from 8 matches) and Benfica sit 2nd (19 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 14 |
A question about Arouca vs Benfica?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Benfica?
- The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Arouca.
- Where and when is Arouca vs Benfica played?
- Arouca vs Benfica is played on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.