Arouca vs Guimaraes: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Guimaraes. The most likely score is 1-1. If Arouca wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arouca vs Guimaraes?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Arouca (2,150) and Guimaraes (2,142).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arouca vs Guimaraes
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arouca
4-2-3-1- 17Barbero
- 7N. Djouahra
- 19A. Trezza
- 8T. Fukui
- 6E. van Ee
- 10Pablo Gozálbez
- 28Tiago Esgaio
- 3José Fontán
- 18O. Lebedenko
- 15Javi Sánchez
- 12I. de Arruabarrena
Guimaraes
4-2-3-1- 9A. Jakupovic
- 44L. Doucet
- 7O. Camara
- 20Samu
- 8Gonçalo Nogueira
- 17Miguel Nogueira
- 13João Mendes
- 28Thiago Balieiro
- 23T. Strata
- 21T. Borevković
- 48O. Zych
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 06:46 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arouca have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Guimaraes have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Arouca wins, 2 draws, 2 Guimaraes wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guimaraes 0-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Arouca 3-2 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Guimaraes 1-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Guimaraes 2-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 12, 2024 | Arouca 0-1 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| May 18, 2024 | Arouca 1-3 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Arouca score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Guimaraes score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Guimaraes | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arouca sit 5th in Primeira Liga (14 points from 8 matches) and Guimaraes sit 15th (5 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 14 |
| 15 | Guimaraes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
A question about Arouca vs Guimaraes?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Guimaraes?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Guimaraes.
- Where and when is Arouca vs Guimaraes played?
- Arouca vs Guimaraes is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.