Arouca vs Guimaraes: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
The Footlab model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Arouca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arouca vs Guimaraes?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Arouca (2,063) and Guimaraes (2,080).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arouca have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Guimaraes have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chaves(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Arouca win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Guimaraes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guimaraes 0-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Arouca 3-2 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Guimaraes 1-1 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Guimaraes 2-2 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 12, 2024 | Arouca 0-1 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| May 18, 2024 | Arouca 1-3 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Arouca score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Guimaraes score 1.4 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Guimaraes | 1.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arouca sit 5th in Primeira Liga (6 points from 3 matches) and Guimaraes sit 9th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Guimaraes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Guimaraes?
- The Footlab model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Arouca.
- Where and when is Arouca vs Guimaraes played?
- Arouca vs Guimaraes is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.