Nacional vs GIL Vicente: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab AI model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Nacional. The most likely score is 1-1. If GIL Vicente wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,772 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nacional vs GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente starts as the favourite with a 139-point Elo edge (2,095 vs 1,956).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nacional vs GIL Vicente
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nacional
4-2-3-1- 29N. Kader
- 10Daniel Júnior
- 12Song Min-Kyu
- 15C. Labidi
- 20Matchoi Djaló
- 8Miguel Baeza
- 38Zé Vitor
- 33Francisco Gonçalves
- 21W. Kokolo
- 88Deivison
- 1Renato Bellucci
GIL Vicente
4-2-3-1- 23Héctor Hernández
- 86Diogo Ferreira Prioste
- 20Gil Pinto Martins
- 10Santi García
- 77Murilo
- 12A. Lausen
- 39Jonathan Buatu
- 45David Moreira
- 47Ricardo Esgaio
- 4M. Elimbi Gilbert
- 30Lucão
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 12:07 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nacional have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; GIL Vicente have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Sanjoanense(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Moreirense(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Nacional wins, 0 draws, 6 GIL Vicente wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | GIL Vicente 2-1 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Nacional 0-2 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Nacional 0-3 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 7, 2024 | GIL Vicente 2-1 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 27, 2022 | GIL Vicente 2-0 Nacional | Taça da Liga |
| Mar 19, 2021 | GIL Vicente 2-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: GIL Vicente vs Nacional on Jan 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nacional score 1.0 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; GIL Vicente score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| GIL Vicente | 1.0 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nacional sit 16th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 8 matches) and GIL Vicente sit 7th (11 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 4 |
A question about Nacional vs GIL Vicente?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nacional vs GIL Vicente?
- The Footlab AI model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Nacional.
- Where and when is Nacional vs GIL Vicente played?
- Nacional vs GIL Vicente is played on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio da Madeira, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.