Nacional vs GIL Vicente: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Nacional. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nacional vs GIL Vicente?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Nacional (1,989) and GIL Vicente (2,050).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nacional have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; GIL Vicente have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Estoril(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 0-3 | Primeira Liga |
| May 11, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Nacional win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 GIL Vicente win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | GIL Vicente 2-1 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Nacional 0-2 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Nacional 0-3 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 7, 2024 | GIL Vicente 2-1 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 27, 2022 | GIL Vicente 2-0 Nacional | Taça da Liga |
| Mar 19, 2021 | GIL Vicente 2-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: GIL Vicente vs Nacional on Jan 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nacional score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; GIL Vicente score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| GIL Vicente | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nacional sit 7th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 3 matches) and GIL Vicente sit 8th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nacional | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nacional vs GIL Vicente?
- The Footlab model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Nacional.
- Where and when is Nacional vs GIL Vicente played?
- Nacional vs GIL Vicente is played on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio da Madeira, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.