Arouca vs Famalicao: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Famalicao. The most likely score is 1-1. If Arouca wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,623 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arouca vs Famalicao?
A very open match: only 1 Elo point separates Arouca (2,132) and Famalicao (2,131).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arouca vs Famalicao
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arouca
4-2-3-1- 17Barbero
- 7N. Djouahra
- 19A. Trezza
- 8T. Fukui
- 6E. van Ee
- 21Mateo Flores
- 18O. Lebedenko
- 28Tiago Esgaio
- 3José Fontán
- 15Javi Sánchez
- 12I. de Arruabarrena
Famalicao
4-2-3-1- 70G. Koutsias
- 7Sorriso
- 14Mathias De Amorim
- 18R. Beney
- 6T. van de Looi
- 21Tamás Szücs
- 17Rodrigo Pinheiro
- 15Víctor Rofino
- 3L. Realpe
- 2Gustavo Garcia
- 25L. Carević
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 06:59 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arouca have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Famalicao have 2, 7 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 18, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(away) | 4-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 0-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 29, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 2-2 | Taça da Liga |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Paredes(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 1-4 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Arouca win, 3 draws, 2 Famalicao wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Famalicao 0-0 Arouca | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Famalicao 1-0 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Arouca 1-1 Famalicao | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Arouca 1-2 Famalicao | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Famalicao 0-0 Arouca | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 23, 2024 | Arouca 3-2 Famalicao | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Arouca score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Famalicao score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 1.3 | 0.9 | 9 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Famalicao | 1.2 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arouca sit 5th in Primeira Liga (20 points from 10 matches) and Famalicao sit 11th (10 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Arouca | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 20 |
| 11 | Famalicao | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 10 |
A question about Arouca vs Famalicao?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Famalicao?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Famalicao.
- Where and when is Arouca vs Famalicao played?
- Arouca vs Famalicao is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.