FC Porto vs Guimaraes: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
The Footlab AI model makes FC Porto the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Guimaraes. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,800 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Porto vs Guimaraes?
FC Porto starts as the favourite with a 292-point Elo edge (2,391 vs 2,099).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for FC Porto vs Guimaraes
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
FC Porto
4-3-3- 11Pepê Aquino
- 19André Silva
- 7William
- 8Victor Mow Froholdt
- 22A. Varela
- 13P. Rosario
- 4J. Kiwior
- 74Francisco Moura
- 20Alberto Baio
- 5J. Bednarek
- 99Diogo Costa
Guimaraes
4-2-3-1- 9A. Jakupovic
- 44L. Doucet
- 7O. Camara
- 20Samu
- 8Gonçalo Nogueira
- 17Miguel Nogueira
- 13João Mendes
- 28Thiago Balieiro
- 23T. Strata
- 21T. Borevković
- 48O. Zych
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 06:03 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Porto have 12 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Guimaraes have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 4-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Recreativa de Lamelas(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 FC Porto wins, 1 draw, 1 Guimaraes win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Guimaraes 0-1 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 4, 2025 | FC Porto 1-3 Guimaraes | Taça da Liga |
| Aug 11, 2025 | FC Porto 3-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 24, 2025 | FC Porto 1-1 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Guimaraes 0-3 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 17, 2024 | FC Porto 3-1 Guimaraes | Taça de Portugal |
Last archived meeting: Guimaraes vs FC Porto on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Porto score 2.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Guimaraes score 0.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 2.0 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Guimaraes | 0.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Porto sit 1st in Primeira Liga (24 points from 8 matches) and Guimaraes sit 15th (5 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 24 |
| 15 | Guimaraes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
A question about FC Porto vs Guimaraes?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Porto vs Guimaraes?
- The Footlab AI model makes FC Porto the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Guimaraes.
- Where and when is FC Porto vs Guimaraes played?
- FC Porto vs Guimaraes is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Do Dragão, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.