Rio Ave vs Sporting CP: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 4Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 07:15 PM (UTC)Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde
The Footlab model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Rio Ave. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?
Sporting CP is a heavy favourite: 2,394 Elo points against 1,999 — a 395-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rio Ave have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Sporting CP have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tondela(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 3-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Rio Ave win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Sporting CP win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Rio Ave 1-4 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Sporting CP 4-0 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 22, 2025 | Rio Ave 1-2 Sporting CP | Taça de Portugal |
| Apr 3, 2025 | Sporting CP 2-0 Rio Ave | Taça de Portugal |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Rio Ave 0-3 Sporting CP | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2024 | Sporting CP 3-1 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rio Ave vs Sporting CP on May 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rio Ave score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting CP score 2.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Sporting CP | 2.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rio Ave sit 10th in Primeira Liga (3 points from 3 matches) and Sporting CP sit 1st (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?
- The Footlab model makes Sporting CP the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Rio Ave.
- Where and when is Rio Ave vs Sporting CP played?
- Rio Ave vs Sporting CP is played on August 28, 2026 at 07:15 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.