Nacional vs Estrela: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 4Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab model makes Nacional the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Estrela. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nacional vs Estrela?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Nacional (1,987) and Estrela (1,951).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nacional have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Estrela have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Estoril(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Tondela(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Al-Nassr(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Lusitano Évora 1911(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Nacional win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Estrela win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Estrela 2-0 Nacional | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Nacional 2-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Estrela 1-1 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Nacional 0-1 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Estrela 2-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| May 21, 2023 | Estrela 0-1 Nacional | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Nacional score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Estrela score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Estrela | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nacional sit 5th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 2 matches) and Estrela sit 9th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nacional | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nacional vs Estrela?
- The Footlab model makes Nacional the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Estrela.
- Where and when is Nacional vs Estrela played?
- Nacional vs Estrela is played on August 30, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio da Madeira, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.