Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion u Parku, Tivat
The Footlab model makes Mornar the favourite at 50%, against 31% for a draw and 18% for Arsenal Tivat. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar?
Mornar starts as the favourite with a 169-point Elo edge (1,619 vs 1,449).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal Tivat have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Mornar have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bokelj(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Buducnost Podgorica(home) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Mornar(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Dečić(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| May 24, 2026 | Mladost DG(home) | 1-4 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Buducnost Podgorica(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mladost DG(away) | 3-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Arsenal Tivat(home) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Jezero(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Arsenal Tivat win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Mornar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Mornar 0-0 Arsenal Tivat | First League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Arsenal Tivat 0-1 Mornar | First League |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Mornar 1-2 Arsenal Tivat | First League |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Arsenal Tivat 0-1 Mornar | First League |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Mornar 2-2 Arsenal Tivat | First League |
| May 14, 2025 | Arsenal Tivat 1-1 Mornar | First League |
Last archived meeting: Mornar vs Arsenal Tivat on Aug 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arsenal Tivat score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Mornar score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Tivat | 0.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Mornar | 1.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arsenal Tivat sit 6th in First League (4 points from 4 matches) and Mornar sit 2nd (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mornar | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | Arsenal Tivat | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar?
- The Footlab model makes Mornar the favourite at 50%, against 31% for a draw and 18% for Arsenal Tivat.
- Where and when is Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar played?
- Arsenal Tivat vs Mornar is played on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion u Parku, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 30% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.