Mornar vs Sutjeska: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadion SRC Topolica, Bar
The Footlab model makes Mornar the favourite at 51%, against 29% for a draw and 20% for Sutjeska. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mornar vs Sutjeska?
A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Mornar (1,619) and Sutjeska (1,528).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mornar have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Sutjeska have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Buducnost Podgorica(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mladost DG(away) | 3-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Arsenal Tivat(home) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Jezero(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Jezero(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Otrant-Olympic(home) | 1-4 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Bokelj(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Buducnost Podgorica(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | ML Vitebsk(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Mornar win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Sutjeska win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Mornar 2-1 Sutjeska | First League |
| Feb 14, 2026 | Sutjeska 2-2 Mornar | Friendlies Clubs |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Sutjeska 0-1 Mornar | First League |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Mornar 1-0 Sutjeska | First League |
| Aug 4, 2025 | Sutjeska 3-0 Mornar | First League |
| May 10, 2025 | Mornar 0-2 Sutjeska | First League |
How many goals should we expect?
Mornar score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sutjeska score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mornar | 1.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Sutjeska | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mornar sit 2nd in First League (8 points from 4 matches) and Sutjeska sit 10th (1 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mornar | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Sutjeska | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mornar vs Sutjeska?
- The Footlab model makes Mornar the favourite at 51%, against 29% for a draw and 20% for Sutjeska.
- Where and when is Mornar vs Sutjeska played?
- Mornar vs Sutjeska is played on November 21, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion SRC Topolica, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.