Arsenal Tula II vs Metallurg Lipetsk: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 3Group 3 - 25Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion DYUSSH Arsenal, Kosaya Gora
The Footlab model makes Metallurg Lipetsk the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Arsenal Tula II. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arsenal Tula II vs Metallurg Lipetsk?
Metallurg Lipetsk starts as the favourite with a 210-point Elo edge (1,695 vs 1,485).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal Tula II have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Metallurg Lipetsk have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Shumbrat(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FK Spartak Tambov(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Avangard Kursk(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya(away) | 0-2 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ryazan(home) | 0-5 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Avangard Kursk(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya(away) | 2-3 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Murom(away) | 0-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ryazan(home) | 0-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rotor-2(away) | 3-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Arsenal Tula II win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Metallurg Lipetsk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Metallurg Lipetsk 3-1 Arsenal Tula II | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Metallurg Lipetsk 1-0 Arsenal Tula II | Second League - Group 3 |
| May 4, 2025 | Arsenal Tula II 1-2 Metallurg Lipetsk | Second League - Group 3 |
| Oct 15, 2022 | Metallurg Lipetsk 1-0 Arsenal Tula II | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2022 | Arsenal Tula II 2-1 Metallurg Lipetsk | Second League - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Metallurg Lipetsk vs Arsenal Tula II on Jun 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arsenal Tula II score 1.1 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Metallurg Lipetsk score 2.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Tula II | 1.1 | 2.4 | 0 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Metallurg Lipetsk | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arsenal Tula II sit 14th in Second League - Group 3 (13 points from 20 matches) and Metallurg Lipetsk sit 4th (38 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 40 | 23 | 38 |
| 14 | Arsenal Tula II | 20 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 42 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arsenal Tula II vs Metallurg Lipetsk?
- The Footlab model makes Metallurg Lipetsk the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Arsenal Tula II.
- Where and when is Arsenal Tula II vs Metallurg Lipetsk played?
- Arsenal Tula II vs Metallurg Lipetsk is played on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion DYUSSH Arsenal, in the Second League - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.