Strogino vs Rodina Moskva III: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 3Group 3 - 25Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Rublevo, Moskva
The Footlab model makes Rodina Moskva III the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Strogino. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Strogino vs Rodina Moskva III?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Strogino (1,477) and Rodina Moskva III (1,563).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Strogino have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Rodina Moskva III have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SKA Khabarovsk II(home) | 1-2 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Shumbrat(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Torpedo Vladimir(home) | 0-3 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FK Spartak Tambov(away) | 1-0 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Avangard Kursk(away) | 3-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ryazan(away) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rotor-2(home) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kvant(away) | 4-1 | Second League - Group 3 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Salyut-Belgorod(home) | 1-3 | Second League - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Strogino win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Rodina Moskva III win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Rodina Moskva III 2-0 Strogino | Second League - Group 3 |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Strogino 0-6 Rodina Moskva III | Second League - Group 3 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Rodina Moskva III 1-1 Strogino | Second League - Group 3 |
Last archived meeting: Rodina Moskva III vs Strogino on Jun 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Strogino score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Rodina Moskva III score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strogino | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Rodina Moskva III | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Strogino sit 12th in Second League - Group 3 (22 points from 20 matches) and Rodina Moskva III sit 9th (25 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rodina Moskva III | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 36 | 34 | 25 |
| 12 | Strogino | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 33 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Strogino vs Rodina Moskva III?
- The Footlab model makes Rodina Moskva III the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Strogino.
- Where and when is Strogino vs Rodina Moskva III played?
- Strogino vs Rodina Moskva III is played on September 26, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Rublevo, in the Second League - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.