Arsenal vs Manchester City: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Emirates Stadium, London
The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Manchester City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arsenal vs Manchester City?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Arsenal (2,382) and Manchester City (2,372).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Manchester City have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Coventry(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 3-0 | Community Shield |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Como(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 2-3 | Emirates Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Betis(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 0-3 | Community Shield |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | K-League Stars(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Arsenal win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Manchester City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Arsenal 3-0 Manchester City | Community Shield |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Manchester City 2-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Arsenal 0-2 Manchester City | League Cup |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Arsenal 1-1 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Arsenal 5-1 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Manchester City 2-2 Arsenal | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Arsenal vs Manchester City on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arsenal score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Manchester City score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Manchester City | 1.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arsenal sit 2nd in Premier League (3 points from 1 matches) and Manchester City sit 7th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arsenal vs Manchester City?
- The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Manchester City.
- Where and when is Arsenal vs Manchester City played?
- Arsenal vs Manchester City is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Emirates Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.