Match

Manchester City vs Leeds: prediction and stats

Premier LeagueMatchday 13Kick-off on December 2, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Etihad Stadium, Manchester

Manchester CityLeeds

The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Leeds. The most likely score is 2-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,585 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Manchester City vs Leeds?

Manchester City starts as the favourite with a 178-point Elo edge (2,270 vs 2,092).

62%22%16%
Manchester City winDrawLeeds win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Manchester City vs Leeds

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Manchester City

4-2-3-1
  1. 9E. Haaland
  1. 7I. Ndiaye
  2. 17E. Fernández
  3. 5E. Anderson
  4. 11J. Doku
  5. 10R. Cherki
  1. 45A. Khusanov
  2. 3Rúben Dias
  3. 6M. Guéhi
  4. 24J. Gvardiol
  1. 1G. Donnarumma

Leeds

3-4-2-1
  1. 9D. Calvert-Lewin
  1. 4E. Ampadu
  2. 2J. Bogle
  3. 22A. Tanaka
  4. 3G. Gudmundsson
  5. 10H. Wilson
  6. 8S. Longstaff
  1. 24J. Justin
  2. 5T. Muharemović
  3. 30N. Elvedi
  1. 1J. Trafford

Computed on November 13, 2026 at 07:12 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchester City have 10 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats; Leeds have 6, 6 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Manchester City
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 7, 2026Nottingham Forest(away)1-3Premier League
Nov 4, 2026RB Leipzig(away)3-2UEFA Champions League
Oct 31, 2026Brighton(home)0-1Premier League
Oct 28, 2026Brighton(home)2-2League Cup
Oct 24, 2026Aston Villa(away)1-2Premier League
Leeds
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 7, 2026Tottenham(home)1-0Premier League
Oct 31, 2026Bournemouth(away)0-2Premier League
Oct 25, 2026Sunderland(away)0-0Premier League
Oct 18, 2026Manchester United(home)1-1Premier League
Oct 10, 2026Arsenal(away)1-2Premier League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Manchester City wins, 0 draws, 0 Leeds wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 28, 2026Leeds 0-1 Manchester CityPremier League
Nov 29, 2025Manchester City 3-2 LeedsPremier League
May 6, 2023Manchester City 2-1 LeedsPremier League
Dec 28, 2022Leeds 1-3 Manchester CityPremier League
Apr 30, 2022Leeds 0-4 Manchester CityPremier League
Dec 14, 2021Manchester City 7-0 LeedsPremier League

Last archived meeting: Leeds vs Manchester City on Feb 28, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Manchester City score 2.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Leeds score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Manchester City2.51.459/1511/15
Leeds1.51.077/154/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Manchester City sit 3rd in Premier League (21 points from 10 matches) and Leeds sit 9th (14 points from 10 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3Manchester City10703211321
9Leeds1035210814

A question about Manchester City vs Leeds?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Manchester City vs Leeds?
The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Leeds.
Where and when is Manchester City vs Leeds played?
Manchester City vs Leeds is played on December 2, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Etihad Stadium, in the Premier League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Manchester City and Leeds