Real Madrid vs Osasuna: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 78%, against 14% for a draw and 8% for Osasuna. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,495 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Osasuna?
Real Madrid is a heavy favourite: 2,352 Elo points against 2,028, a 324-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Real Madrid vs Osasuna
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1- 10Kylian Mbappé
- 8F. Valverde
- 5J. Bellingham
- 14A. Tchouaméni
- 25Y. Diomande
- 15A. Güler
- 16I. Konaté
- 22A. Rüdiger
- 17Marc Cucurella
- 24D. Dumfries
- 1T. Courtois
Osasuna
4-4-2- 17A. Budimir
- 9Raúl García
- 7Moncayola
- 14Rubén García
- 6Lucas Torró
- 16Moi Gómez
- 27Íñigo Arguibide
- 24Catena
- 35U. Santos
- 23Abel Bretones
- 13Aitor Fernández
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 04:34 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Madrid have 12 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats; Osasuna have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | AS Roma(away) | 4-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 4-1 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 2-5 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 0-4 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 0-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 2-5 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Real Madrid wins, 1 draw, 1 Osasuna win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Osasuna 2-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Real Madrid 1-0 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Osasuna 1-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Real Madrid 4-0 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Osasuna 2-4 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Real Madrid 4-0 Osasuna | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Osasuna vs Real Madrid on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Madrid score 2.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Osasuna score 1.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 2.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Osasuna | 1.1 | 1.8 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Madrid sit 4th in La Liga (18 points from 8 matches) and Osasuna sit 16th (8 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 18 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 8 |
A question about Real Madrid vs Osasuna?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Madrid vs Osasuna?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 78%, against 14% for a draw and 8% for Osasuna.
- Where and when is Real Madrid vs Osasuna played?
- Real Madrid vs Osasuna is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.