Arys vs Ekibastuz: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 21Kick-off on September 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Turkistan Arena, Turkistan
The Footlab model makes Ekibastuz the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Arys. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arys vs Ekibastuz?
Ekibastuz starts as the favourite with a 122-point Elo edge (1,296 vs 1,173).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arys have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Ekibastuz have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Taraz(home) | 1-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Khan Tengri(away) | 0-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Tobol 2(home) | 3-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Astana II(away) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Shakhter Karagandy(away) | 1-4 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Akademiya Ontustik(away) | 2-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Jaiyq(home) | 3-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Aktobe Jas(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Yelimay Semey 2(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Kaspij Aktau 2(away) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Arys win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Ekibastuz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | Ekibastuz 1-1 Arys | 1. Division |
| Aug 30, 2024 | Arys 1-2 Ekibastuz | 1. Division |
| Jul 5, 2024 | Ekibastuz 3-0 Arys | 1. Division |
| Oct 24, 2023 | Arys 1-1 Ekibastuz | 1. Division |
| Jul 13, 2023 | Ekibastuz 3-0 Arys | 1. Division |
| Oct 22, 2020 | Arys 2-2 Ekibastuz | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Arys score 1.1 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Ekibastuz score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arys | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Ekibastuz | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arys sit 12th in 1. Division (15 points from 19 matches) and Ekibastuz sit 7th (26 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ekibastuz | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 34 | 26 |
| 12 | Arys | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 39 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arys vs Ekibastuz?
- The Footlab model makes Ekibastuz the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Arys.
- Where and when is Arys vs Ekibastuz played?
- Arys vs Ekibastuz is played on September 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Turkistan Arena, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.