Ekibastuz vs Tobol 2: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 22Kick-off on September 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Stadion Shakhter, Ėkibastyz
The Footlab model makes Ekibastuz the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Tobol 2. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ekibastuz vs Tobol 2?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Ekibastuz (1,296) and Tobol 2 (1,235).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ekibastuz have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Tobol 2 have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Akademiya Ontustik(away) | 2-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Jaiyq(home) | 3-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Aktobe Jas(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Yelimay Semey 2(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Kaspij Aktau 2(away) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Khan Tengri(home) | 3-4 | 1. Division |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Astana II(away) | 4-0 | 1. Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Arys(away) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Shakhter Karagandy(home) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Turan Turkistan(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Ekibastuz win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Tobol 2 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | Tobol 2 3-3 Ekibastuz | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Ekibastuz score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Tobol 2 score 1.9 and concede 2.8. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ekibastuz | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Tobol 2 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ekibastuz sit 7th in 1. Division (26 points from 19 matches) and Tobol 2 sit 14th (10 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ekibastuz | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 34 | 26 |
| 14 | Tobol 2 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 31 | 52 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ekibastuz vs Tobol 2?
- The Footlab model makes Ekibastuz the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Tobol 2.
- Where and when is Ekibastuz vs Tobol 2 played?
- Ekibastuz vs Tobol 2 is played on September 10, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Stadion Shakhter, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.