AS Kigali vs Marines: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on February 17, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Régional de Nyamirambo, Kigali
The Footlab model makes Marines the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for AS Kigali. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AS Kigali vs Marines?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate AS Kigali (1,660) and Marines (1,668).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AS Kigali have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Marines have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Musanze(home) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 22, 2026 | Rutsiro(away) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 15, 2026 | Gicumbi(home) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 10, 2026 | APR(away) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 6, 2026 | Gorilla(away) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Muhanga(home) | 3-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 24, 2026 | Musanze(home) | 1-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Etincelles(home) | 2-3 | National Soccer League |
| May 9, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 1-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 6, 2026 | Bugesera(away) | 4-0 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 AS Kigali win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Marines win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | Marines 0-1 AS Kigali | National Soccer League |
| Oct 18, 2025 | AS Kigali 1-0 Marines | National Soccer League |
| May 27, 2025 | Marines 0-1 AS Kigali | National Soccer League |
| Nov 6, 2024 | AS Kigali 1-2 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Feb 18, 2024 | AS Kigali 2-1 Marines | National Soccer League |
| Oct 11, 2023 | Marines 0-1 AS Kigali | National Soccer League |
How many goals should we expect?
AS Kigali score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Marines score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Kigali | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Marines | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AS Kigali sit 14th in National Soccer League (35 points from 34 matches) and Marines sit 8th (45 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Marines | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 47 | 43 | 45 |
| 14 | AS Kigali | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 27 | 39 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AS Kigali vs Marines?
- The Footlab model makes Marines the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for AS Kigali.
- Where and when is AS Kigali vs Marines played?
- AS Kigali vs Marines is played on February 17, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Régional de Nyamirambo, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.