Etincelles vs Bugesera: prediction and stats
National Soccer LeagueRegular Season - 21Kick-off on February 17, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stade Umuganda, Gisenyi
The Footlab AI model makes Etincelles the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Bugesera. The most likely score is 0-0. If Etincelles wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,461 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Etincelles vs Bugesera?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Etincelles (1,656) and Bugesera (1,669).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Etincelles vs Bugesera
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Etincelles
Not enough data to predict the Etincelles lineup.
Bugesera
Not enough data to predict the Bugesera lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 10:39 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Etincelles have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Bugesera have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bugesera(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Musanze(home) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Gorilla(away) | 1-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sunrise(home) | 0-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 30, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(home) | 2-1 | National Soccer League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Etincelles(home) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Kiyovu Sports(away) | 0-1 | National Soccer League |
| May 30, 2026 | Rutsiro(away) | 2-0 | National Soccer League |
| May 26, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 0-2 | National Soccer League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mukura(away) | 2-2 | National Soccer League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Etincelles wins, 2 draws, 4 Bugesera wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bugesera 2-0 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Bugesera 3-0 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Etincelles 1-2 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| May 24, 2025 | Etincelles 0-1 Bugesera | National Soccer League |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Bugesera 1-1 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
| Mar 31, 2024 | Bugesera 2-2 Etincelles | National Soccer League |
Last archived meeting: Bugesera vs Etincelles on Oct 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Etincelles score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Bugesera score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etincelles | 1.1 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Bugesera | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Etincelles sit 2nd in National Soccer League (7 points from 4 matches) and Bugesera sit 13th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Etincelles | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | Bugesera | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
A question about Etincelles vs Bugesera?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Etincelles vs Bugesera?
- The Footlab AI model makes Etincelles the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Bugesera.
- Where and when is Etincelles vs Bugesera played?
- Etincelles vs Bugesera is played on February 17, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Umuganda, in the National Soccer League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.