Aşgabat vs Merw: prediction and stats
Ýokary LigaRegular Season - 25Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Sportkompleks Gökje, Ashgabat
The Footlab AI model makes Aşgabat the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Merw. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,598 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aşgabat vs Merw?
On Elo ratings, Aşgabat has 1,290 points and Merw 1,273.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aşgabat vs Merw
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aşgabat
Not enough data to predict the Aşgabat lineup.
Merw
4-4-2- 8Y. Dovletgeldiyev
- 90M. Ýakşiýew
- 10K. Annamuhammedov
- 14D. Durdyyev
- 13I. Sekov
- 11M. Nazzyyev
- 4A. Mahmudov
- 2S. Bashimov
- 6A. Orazmuhammedov
- 9M. Atagarryyev
- 30M. Saparov
Computed on October 26, 2026 at 05:47 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aşgabat have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Merw have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Nebitci(home) | 0-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Altyn Asyr(home) | 2-4 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ahal(home) | 3-4 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Köpetdag Aşgabat(home) | 1-1 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Merw(away) | 2-3 | Ýokary Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Nebitci(away) | 0-3 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Şagadam(away) | 2-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Köpetdag Aşgabat(home) | 0-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Aşgabat(home) | 3-2 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ahal(away) | 0-4 | Ýokary Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Aşgabat wins, 0 draws, 3 Merw wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | Merw 3-2 Aşgabat | Ýokary Liga |
| May 30, 2026 | Aşgabat 5-1 Merw | Ýokary Liga |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Merw 2-1 Aşgabat | Ýokary Liga |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Aşgabat 2-1 Merw | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Merw 1-2 Aşgabat | Ýokary Liga |
| May 9, 2025 | Merw 2-0 Aşgabat | Ýokary Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Aşgabat score 1.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Merw score 0.7 and concede 2.6. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aşgabat | 1.5 | 2.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Merw | 0.7 | 2.6 | 3 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aşgabat sit 7th in Ýokary Liga (15 points from 21 matches) and Merw sit 6th (18 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Merw | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 23 | 59 | 18 |
| 7 | Aşgabat | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 25 | 48 | 15 |
A question about Aşgabat vs Merw?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aşgabat vs Merw?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aşgabat the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Merw.
- Where and when is Aşgabat vs Merw played?
- Aşgabat vs Merw is played on November 1, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Sportkompleks Gökje, in the Ýokary Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.