Ashton United vs Gainsborough Trinity: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 7Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Hurst Cross, Ashton-under-Lyne, Greater Manchester
The Footlab model makes Gainsborough Trinity the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Ashton United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ashton United vs Gainsborough Trinity?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Ashton United (1,748) and Gainsborough Trinity (1,791).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ashton United have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Gainsborough Trinity have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AFC Emley(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Whitby Town(home) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bamber Bridge(away) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Stockton Town(away) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lancaster City(home) | 4-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bury(home) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Stockton Town(home) | 4-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | United of Manchester(away) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Alfreton Town(away) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Workington(home) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Ashton United win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Gainsborough Trinity win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | Ashton United 0-3 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Gainsborough Trinity 0-3 Ashton United | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Ashton United 0-2 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Gainsborough Trinity 0-1 Ashton United | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Ashton United 2-0 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Oct 24, 2023 | Gainsborough Trinity 2-2 Ashton United | Non League Premier - Northern |
Last archived meeting: Ashton United vs Gainsborough Trinity on Feb 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ashton United score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Gainsborough Trinity score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton United | 1.4 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Gainsborough Trinity | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ashton United sit 5th in Non League Premier - Northern (10 points from 5 matches) and Gainsborough Trinity sit 8th (9 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ashton United | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Gainsborough Trinity | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ashton United vs Gainsborough Trinity?
- The Footlab model makes Gainsborough Trinity the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Ashton United.
- Where and when is Ashton United vs Gainsborough Trinity played?
- Ashton United vs Gainsborough Trinity is played on August 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Hurst Cross, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.