Aston Villa vs Arsenal: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 2Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Villa Park, Birmingham
The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
Arsenal starts as the favourite with a 154-point Elo edge (2,391 vs 2,237).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aston Villa have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Arsenal have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | BG Pathum United(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 3-0 | Community Shield |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Como(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 2-3 | Emirates Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Betis(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Girona(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Aston Villa win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Arsenal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2025 | Arsenal 4-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Aston Villa 2-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Arsenal 2-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Aston Villa 0-2 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Arsenal 0-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Dec 9, 2023 | Aston Villa 1-0 Arsenal | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Arsenal vs Aston Villa on Dec 30, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Aston Villa score 2.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Arsenal | 1.5 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aston Villa sit 4th in Premier League (65 points from 38 matches) and Arsenal sit 1st (85 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71 | 27 | 85 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56 | 49 | 65 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
- The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Aston Villa vs Arsenal played?
- Aston Villa vs Arsenal is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Villa Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.