Tottenham vs Newcastle: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 2Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
The Footlab model makes Tottenham the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Newcastle. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tottenham vs Newcastle?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Tottenham (2,111) and Newcastle (2,131).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tottenham have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Newcastle have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Bristol City(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Tottenham win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Newcastle win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2026 | Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Newcastle 2-2 Tottenham | Premier League |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Newcastle 2-0 Tottenham | League Cup |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Tottenham 1-1 Newcastle | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 4, 2025 | Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Newcastle 2-1 Tottenham | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Tottenham vs Newcastle on Feb 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tottenham score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Newcastle | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tottenham sit 17th in Premier League (41 points from 38 matches) and Newcastle sit 12th (49 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Newcastle | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 55 | 49 |
| 17 | Tottenham | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48 | 57 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tottenham vs Newcastle?
- The Footlab model makes Tottenham the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Newcastle.
- Where and when is Tottenham vs Newcastle played?
- Tottenham vs Newcastle is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.