Manchester United vs Aston Villa: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Old Trafford, Manchester
The Footlab model makes Manchester United the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Manchester United (2,224) and Aston Villa (2,206).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchester United have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Aston Villa have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hull City(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-4 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | BG Pathum United(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Manchester United win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Aston Villa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Manchester United 3-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
| May 25, 2025 | Manchester United 2-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Aston Villa 0-0 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Aston Villa 1-2 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Dec 26, 2023 | Manchester United 3-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Manchester United vs Aston Villa on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Manchester United score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Aston Villa score 2.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Aston Villa | 2.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchester United sit 16th in Premier League (0 points from 1 matches) and Aston Villa sit 20th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Manchester United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
- The Footlab model makes Manchester United the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Manchester United vs Aston Villa played?
- Manchester United vs Aston Villa is played on November 7, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Old Trafford, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.