Aston Villa vs Newcastle: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 36Kick-off on May 15, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Villa Park, Birmingham
The Footlab AI model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Newcastle. The most likely score is 1-1. If Aston Villa wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,491 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Newcastle?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Aston Villa (2,279) and Newcastle (2,194).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aston Villa vs Newcastle
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1- 11N. Jackson
- 8B. Kamara
- 7J. McGinn
- 10E. Buendía
- 44J. Manzambi
- 35João Gomes
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 5T. Mings
- 2M. Cash
- 13M. Ruggeri
- 1Z. Suzuki
Newcastle
4-2-3-1- 20M. Fernandez-Pardo
- 11H. Barnes
- 9Y. Wissa
- 23J. Murphy
- 28J. Willock
- 6Nico González
- 4S. Botman
- 3L. Hall
- 12M. Thiaw
- 67L. Miley
- 21L. Horníček
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:38 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aston Villa have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Newcastle have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 6-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 3-1 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Leeds(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Millwall(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Aston Villa wins, 1 draw, 3 Newcastle wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Aston Villa 1-3 Newcastle | FA Cup |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Newcastle 0-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Aston Villa 0-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Aston Villa 4-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Dec 26, 2024 | Newcastle 3-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Jan 30, 2024 | Aston Villa 1-3 Newcastle | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Aston Villa vs Newcastle on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aston Villa score 1.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle score 1.6 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Newcastle | 1.6 | 1.8 | 3 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aston Villa sit 16th in Premier League (5 points from 6 matches) and Newcastle sit 11th (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 8 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 5 |
A question about Aston Villa vs Newcastle?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aston Villa vs Newcastle?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Newcastle.
- Where and when is Aston Villa vs Newcastle played?
- Aston Villa vs Newcastle is played on May 15, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Villa Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.