Manchester City vs Aston Villa: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueMatchday 37Kick-off on May 23, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Etihad Stadium, Manchester
The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 5,941 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchester City vs Aston Villa?
Manchester City starts as the favourite with a 124-point Elo edge (2,270 vs 2,145).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Manchester City vs Aston Villa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Manchester City
4-2-3-1- 9E. Haaland
- 7I. Ndiaye
- 17E. Fernández
- 5E. Anderson
- 11J. Doku
- 10R. Cherki
- 45A. Khusanov
- 3Rúben Dias
- 6M. Guéhi
- 24J. Gvardiol
- 1G. Donnarumma
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1- 11N. Jackson
- 8B. Kamara
- 44J. Manzambi
- 7J. McGinn
- 47Alysson Edward
- 27L. Goretzka
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 22I. Maatsen
- 14Pau Torres
- 2M. Cash
- 1Z. Suzuki
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 05:56 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchester City have 10 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats; Aston Villa have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Nov 4, 2026 | RB Leipzig(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Aston Villa(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 4-4 | Premier League |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Manchester City wins, 0 draws, 4 Aston Villa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City | Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Manchester City 1-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Aston Villa 1-0 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Apr 22, 2025 | Manchester City 2-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Apr 3, 2024 | Manchester City 4-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Aston Villa vs Manchester City on Oct 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Manchester City score 2.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Aston Villa score 2.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 2.5 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Aston Villa | 2.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchester City sit 3rd in Premier League (21 points from 10 matches) and Aston Villa sit 10th (13 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 21 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | 13 |
A question about Manchester City vs Aston Villa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchester City vs Aston Villa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Manchester City vs Aston Villa played?
- Manchester City vs Aston Villa is played on May 23, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Etihad Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.