Newcastle vs Aston Villa: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
The Footlab AI model makes Newcastle the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Newcastle wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Newcastle (2,240) and Aston Villa (2,291).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Newcastle
4-2-3-1- 9Y. Wissa
- 11H. Barnes
- 67L. Miley
- 23J. Murphy
- 28J. Willock
- 20M. Fernandez-Pardo
- 4S. Botman
- 3L. Hall
- 12M. Thiaw
- 37A. Dedić
- 21L. Horníček
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1- 11N. Jackson
- 8B. Kamara
- 10E. Buendía
- 7J. McGinn
- 53George Hemmings
- 35João Gomes
- 5T. Mings
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 29A. Wan-Bissaka
- 13M. Ruggeri
- 1Z. Suzuki
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 04:27 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Aston Villa have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Leeds(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Millwall(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 3-1 | League Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Club Brugge KV(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Newcastle wins, 1 draw, 2 Aston Villa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Aston Villa 1-3 Newcastle | FA Cup |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Newcastle 0-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Aston Villa 0-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Aston Villa 4-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Dec 26, 2024 | Newcastle 3-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Jan 30, 2024 | Aston Villa 1-3 Newcastle | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Aston Villa vs Newcastle on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newcastle score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Aston Villa score 1.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Aston Villa | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newcastle sit 9th in Premier League (8 points from 5 matches) and Aston Villa sit 16th (4 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 4 |
A question about Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Newcastle the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Newcastle vs Aston Villa played?
- Newcastle vs Aston Villa is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at St. James' Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.