Newcastle vs Crystal Palace: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 37Kick-off on May 23, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
The Footlab AI model makes Newcastle the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Crystal Palace. The most likely score is 1-1. If Newcastle wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newcastle vs Crystal Palace?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Newcastle (2,168) and Crystal Palace (2,147).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Newcastle vs Crystal Palace
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Newcastle
4-2-3-1- 20M. Fernandez-Pardo
- 11H. Barnes
- 9Y. Wissa
- 23J. Murphy
- 28J. Willock
- 6Nico González
- 4S. Botman
- 3L. Hall
- 12M. Thiaw
- 67L. Miley
- 21L. Horníček
Crystal Palace
3-4-2-1- 22J. Strand Larsen
- 3T. Mitchell
- 20A. Wharton
- 10Yeremy Pino
- 23Q. Timber
- 18D. Kamada
- 25A. Khalaili
- 26C. Richards
- 6J. Canvot
- 8J. Lerma
- 44W. Benítez
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 03:14 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Crystal Palace have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Leeds(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Millwall(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Lyon(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Leeds(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Lech Poznan(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Newcastle wins, 1 draw, 2 Crystal Palace wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Crystal Palace 2-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Newcastle 2-0 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Newcastle 5-0 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Crystal Palace 1-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Crystal Palace 2-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Newcastle 4-0 Crystal Palace | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Crystal Palace vs Newcastle on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newcastle score 1.6 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Crystal Palace score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 1.6 | 1.8 | 3 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Crystal Palace | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newcastle sit 11th in Premier League (8 points from 6 matches) and Crystal Palace sit 12th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 7 |
A question about Newcastle vs Crystal Palace?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newcastle vs Crystal Palace?
- The Footlab AI model makes Newcastle the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Crystal Palace.
- Where and when is Newcastle vs Crystal Palace played?
- Newcastle vs Crystal Palace is played on May 23, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at St. James' Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.