Lazio vs AS Roma: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Olimpico, Roma
The Footlab model makes AS Roma the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Lazio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lazio vs AS Roma?
AS Roma starts as the favourite with a 104-point Elo edge (2,188 vs 2,084).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lazio have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; AS Roma have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mantova(home) | 0-2 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Frosinone(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Ostia Mare(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ascoli(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Avellino(home) | 6-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Newport County(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cannes(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Lazio win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 AS Roma win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | AS Roma 2-0 Lazio | Serie A |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Lazio 0-1 AS Roma | Serie A |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Lazio 1-1 AS Roma | Serie A |
| Jan 5, 2025 | AS Roma 2-0 Lazio | Serie A |
| Apr 6, 2024 | AS Roma 1-0 Lazio | Serie A |
| Jan 10, 2024 | Lazio 1-0 AS Roma | Coppa Italia |
How many goals should we expect?
Lazio score 2.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; AS Roma score 2.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 2.0 | 1.4 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| AS Roma | 2.2 | 1.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lazio sit 9th in Serie A (54 points from 38 matches) and AS Roma sit 3rd (73 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AS Roma | 38 | 23 | 4 | 11 | 59 | 31 | 73 |
| 9 | Lazio | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 41 | 40 | 54 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lazio vs AS Roma?
- The Footlab model makes AS Roma the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Lazio.
- Where and when is Lazio vs AS Roma played?
- Lazio vs AS Roma is played on December 13, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Olimpico, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.