Napoli vs AC Milan: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli
The Footlab model makes Napoli the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for AC Milan. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Napoli vs AC Milan?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Napoli (2,163) and AC Milan (2,136).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Napoli have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; AC Milan have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis(home) | 6-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Carrarese(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Torino(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Inter(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Napoli win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 AC Milan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Napoli 1-0 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Napoli 2-0 AC Milan | Super Cup |
| Sep 28, 2025 | AC Milan 2-1 Napoli | Serie A |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Napoli 2-1 AC Milan | Serie A |
| Oct 29, 2024 | AC Milan 0-2 Napoli | Serie A |
| Feb 11, 2024 | AC Milan 1-0 Napoli | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Napoli score 1.8 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; AC Milan score 1.2 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 1.8 | 0.9 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| AC Milan | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Napoli sit 2nd in Serie A (3 points from 1 matches) and AC Milan sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Napoli vs AC Milan?
- The Footlab model makes Napoli the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for AC Milan.
- Where and when is Napoli vs AC Milan played?
- Napoli vs AC Milan is played on December 13, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.